World Cup 2026 Best Bets — My Picks for Monday 22 June

Four games today, and a Monday card that ranges from "fill your boots" short to "leave it well alone". I have gone through the lot the way I go through every matchday — odds first, story second, gut last — and I am only putting my name to the calls I actually believe in. Everything below is fractional with the decimal in brackets and a timestamp, and I will be honest up front about a data caveat that matters today.

Monday-night World Cup from an Irish sofa — four matches, but only a couple worth a punt. Photo for illustration.

A Word on Today’s Match Odds — Read This First

The two betting aggregators I trust most were both unreachable when I pulled today’s lines, so the 1X2 prices below come from a secondary consensus module and are stamped as of 22 Jun, ~10:00 ET. Treat them as indicative rather than gospel — check the live price at your book before you stake. I would rather flag that than dress up a number I could not double-source. That is the whole game in YMYL betting copy: the timestamp and the source are the bet.

Argentina vs Austria (Group J, 1:00 PM ET) — The Headline Act

Argentina are 4/7 (1.58), the draw 11/4 (3.65), Austria 22/5 (5.38, as of 22 Jun). Argentina are unbeaten this tournament on an eight-match winning run and arrive with Messi a single goal from Klose’s all-time World Cup scoring record — I have written that one up in full as its own preview because it deserves more than a line here.

At 4/7 the win is too short to excite me. The value, if there is any, is in the goals. Austria captain David Alaba has been talking up Argentina’s threat "even besides Messi", and Austria themselves beat Jordan 3–1 — this is not a side that parks the bus. My pick: over 2.5 goals, on the basis that Austria will have a go and Argentina have scored freely.

Confidence: 7/10.

France vs Iraq (Group I, 5:00 PM ET) — The "Don’t Be Greedy" Game

France are 1/12 (1.08), Iraq a colossal 27/1 (27.84, as of 22 Jun). Opta’s model gives France an 88.5% win probability, and Mbappé — already France’s all-time top scorer after his brace against Senegal — could bring up his 100th cap. Iraq are at their first World Cup since 1986 and lost 4–1 to Norway on opening day.

There is no value in a 1/12 shot; staking €12 to win €1 is not investing, it is donating. If you must be involved, Mbappé anytime goalscorer is the only angle I would entertain, and even then only as a single. I am personally passing on this one as a standalone bet.

Confidence: 5/10 — a watch, not a bet.

Example: A €10 each-way style stake is pointless at 1/12. By contrast, France at 1/12 (1.08) returns just €10.80 on a €10 win bet — €0.80 profit. The risk-reward simply is not there.

Norway vs Senegal (Group I, 8:00 PM ET) — My Bet of the Day

Here is where I am actually getting involved. Norway are 21/20 (2.04), the draw 12/5 (3.41), Senegal 9/4 (3.22, as of 22 Jun) — and the model and the market disagree in a way I like. Erling Haaland scored a brace on his World Cup debut and has now found the net in 11 straight competitive Norway games; Norway themselves have won their last 11 competitive matches. Opta still makes it a near coin-flip (Norway 45.0% / draw 25.4% / Senegal 29.6%).

Senegal are a fine side, but they lost to France and now meet a Norway team in the best run of form at the tournament. My pick: Norway to win at 21/20, with Haaland anytime goalscorer as the flavour bet for those who like a shorter, story-driven punt.

Confidence: 8/10 — my strongest call on the card.

Jordan vs Algeria (Group J, 11:00 PM ET) — A Late-Night Lean

A genuine late one for Irish viewers, kicking off in the small hours. Algeria are 1/2 (1.47), the draw 3/1 (3.98), Jordan 21/4 (6.24, as of 22 Jun). Algeria were beaten 3–0 by Argentina but should have far too much for a Jordan side that lost 3–1 to Austria, with Riyad Mahrez expected back in the XI after a tactical rest. Jordan, to their credit, scored their first-ever World Cup goal through Ali Olwan.

At 1/2 the Algeria win is fair rather than fat. If you are staying up, Algeria -1 on the handicap is the more interesting line than the bare win. For most people, this is a "set the alarm only if you have a bet" fixture.

Confidence: 6/10.

My Card, In Order

Bet of the day: Norway to win (21/20) v Senegal — best form at the tournament against a beaten side.
Goals angle: Over 2.5 in Argentina v Austria — both teams attack-minded.
Story bet: Haaland and Mbappé anytime goalscorer for those who like a name.
Swerve: France at 1/12 as a standalone — no value whatsoever.
All prices are indicative (secondary source, 22 Jun ~10:00 ET) — confirm at your book before staking.

If you want the keenest euro lines for these markets, Boomerang Bet.com, BillyBets and ZotaBet were the books I would point Irish punters to this morning — but the golden rule stands: take a price, not the first price, and never chase a late-night loss into the Jordan game. For the wider strategy, see our World Cup 2026 Betting Guide, the accumulator tips page if you fancy building these into an acca, and the live World Cup 2026 Odds overview. My full title-race read is on the Predictions page.

Odds are fractional (decimal in brackets), indicative and correct as of the times stated; confirm live prices before betting. 18+. Betting is licensed in Ireland under the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland — bet responsibly, set a limit, and when the fun stops, stop.